Between "sunset" industry & "emerging" industry, how do you choose?

Release time 2020-05-22 09:23:16 79 times viewed
When making foreign trade selections, foreign traders basically reached a consensus, choosing "emerging industries" with markets, and abandoning "sunset industries" that nobody cares about. "Emerging industries" in the market can often bring us huge development space including sustained high-speed growth trend and a high product premium accompanied; while some "sunset industries" are in a slow decline. It can be seen that the sales volume and sales of products have been declining year by year.

So how do you judge by some trade data, what kind of state is the product you manage? Is it declining year by year, or is it continuing to grow?

We can research and obtain this part of trade data through Get Data on the UN Comtrade Database official website. Below we compare the export volume (net weight) and export volume (total amount) of the two types of products in recent years.

The first is about toy products. There are many kinds of toy products on the market, and their HS codes are also different. We choose wheeled toys similar to bicycles and scooters, and search using its HS code 950300. After entering the code, the system will give a detailed description of the code.



In the case where other options remain unchanged, such as whether you are exporting wheeled toys or similar toys, at this time, we need to look at the export trends of the entire large category of products in the past five years.



It can be seen that in the past five years, the export volume and export value have continued to rise from 2014 to 2018.

In the same way, look at the export trend of rubber products in the past five years. Taking rubber 400219 as an example, the data is as follows:



It can be seen that in the past five years, from 2014 to 2017, the export volume and export value have continued to decline, and there has been a slight upward trend from 2017 to 2018. The magnitude is not large.

We all know that the net weight is generally reflected in customs declarations and bills of lading. If this value continues to decline, what does it mean? Two problems are explained. First, assuming that the willingness of foreign countries to purchase in China has not changed, it can only mean that their purchasing volume is declining and the market demand for such products is declining. Second, it may be that foreign importers abandon their procurement completely from China, or that the structure of their procurement channels has changed. As a result, the volume of purchases imported from China has decreased significantly, and import orders have shifted to some Asian countries with lower labor costs. From this statistical value, we can feel that the procurement channels, structure, and country choices are facing some changes. Therefore, the statistical data here can help us do some analysis, and then judge which product is more suitable for this type of product, and which one has more development potential.

Of course, it cannot be generalized. Compared with the toy products mentioned above, we also see products such as paper cups (HS code: 482369), which are not particularly high in total trade volume.



The total trade volume in 2018 is USD 25.4 billion and USD 1 billion for wheeled toys. Comparing paper cups with toys, although the gap between their export values ​​is very large, think about the difference in price or value between these two types of products. So how to make an analogy? Maybe we think that a product with a relatively small value, such as a paper cup, can achieve an annual export transaction value of 1.1 billion US dollars with continued growth.

If you find that the export value and export volume of a certain type of product are increasing year by year, it means that the demand for this type of product and the amount of purchase from China are rising. It can be seen that the development trend of this type of product may be relatively bright in the future. For me, I might also choose the paper cup product.

Finally, let me explain. When doing market research and analysis, the content of the get data section is very useful to our foreign traders. However, the above analysis and classification methods are not necessarily very scientific and correct. Mostly, they provide an analysis idea for your reference.